Leading Off: Oakland Athletics
We’ve seen Aaron Judge own the A’s in the Bronx in years past (Bill Kostroun / AP)
The Last Time We Met….
It was walk-off weekend the last time the Yankees and A’s played on August 30 and September 1 way back in 2019. DJ LeMahieu walked off Lou Trivino on Saturday evening, and Mike Ford, pinch-hitting for Clint Frazier, won it against Liam Hendriks on Sunday afternoon right after Brett Gardner hit a game-tying blast. Take a look, it was fun.
Gary Sanchez, in a prior #HotGarySummer, provided a multi-homer game in that series as well.
Of course, we’d be remiss if we did not bid Mike Ford farewell. The Yankees designated him for assignment earlier this week, and agreed to trade him to the Rays for cash considerations and a player to be named later (presumably Wander Franco) on Thursday. Ford finishes his tenure as a Yankee slashing .199/.301/.422 for an OPS+ of 94. Of course, his phenomenal 2019 season, in which he posted an OPS+ of 136 buoys those stats, and he has been 52% below average since the 2020 season started. Thanks for the memories, Princeton Mike whose parents are professors, it’s been real.
Yes, we are concerned he will become a Yankee Killer in the future.
The Teams
The A’s come to the Bronx leading the AL West at 43-27. They’ve won each of their last 6 games as well as 11 of their last 13. These guys are hot, and they’re no stranger to crazy streaks this year. Oakland started the season 0-6, then went 14-1 in their next 15, then 18-18 in their next 36, and are the aforementioned 11-2 since. That’s a very Yankee-like profile, as I pointed out on Twitter the other day.
The Yankees started 5-10, then they went 23-9, then they went 5-13. What on earth is this team? https://t.co/DXrRDPlAbT
— Miguel Andújar Stan Account (@RW_Harris10) June 14, 2021
The A’s are 11th in the league with a .733 OPS, and have a number of hitters who are having phenomenal seasons. They’re handling the loss of Marcus Semien quite well, as Matt Olson (175), Mark Canha (137), Ramon Laureano (135), and Tony Kemp (132) are all at least 30% better than league average by OPS+ (the Yankees have one such player, Aaron Judge). They score 4.54 runs per game, on par with the Minnesota Twins, and generally look very good.
They’re above average on the run suppression side, allowing 4.11 runs per game. They’re 13th in the league with a 3.84 ERA, and pitch even better (3.55 ERA) on the road. Their bullpen is slightly weaker than their starters are on average, but this team is good at preventing runs. I figured some component of this might be fielding-related, given that the Matts Olson and Chapman (as well as Ramon Laureano) are renowned for their fielding, but the A’s actually rate as worse defensively than the Yankees in numerous metrics. I guess they just pitch really well.
As for the Yankees, things finally feel like they’re coming together (despite the pitching feeling like it is falling apart). As of Thursday evening, they are 9th in the league in OPS over the last 15 days despite still being slightly below average in OPS on the season. They’ve moved out of the bottom-5 in runs per game (I hate that I see this as a victory), and are beginning to slug.
We should give a lot of credit for the offense beginning to find itself to Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andújar specifically. Here’s a good stat.
Did you ever wonder what watching Babe Ruth was like? Wonder no more. Babe Ruth's career wRC+ was 197. Gary's since 5/27 is 194. Gary Sanchez has basically been Babe Ruth for 3 weeks.
— Yankees Files (@YankeesFiles) June 17, 2021
Of course, I won’t go without a similar one for Miggy. Since May 31, Miggy has posted a 161 wRC+, improving his season tally by 61 points (go Miggy go)! For reference, Alex Rodriguez only had one season in his career (his 2007 MVP campaign) in which his wRC+ was better than 161. That netted him a pretty nice contract, as I’m sure we all remember.
Pitching has regressed for the Yankees, as my dad insisted it would on our podcast.
The Yankees have pitched to a 5.67 ERA over the last 15 days, which has dampened the return of their offense with some slugfest losses (like those against the Twins and Phillies). With that said, the staff is still allowing fewer than 4 runs per game, a good-enough number for this resurgent offense to work with.
With the Yankees coming off a series win against the Blue Jays, who had previously given them fits, this series is a great opportunity to continue to progress. The Yankees have done very well against good teams from other divisions this year, I should remind you. They went 2-1 against Houston, 3-1 against Cleveland, and swept the White Sox, who have the best record in the game. Let’s continue that trend.
Yankee Killers
Stephen Piscotty is 3rd in OPS among active players with at least 30 PA against the Yankees in his career, at 1.213. His OPS this year is only .640, so don’t get him hot! The Stanford product doesn’t even have good peripherals, so it would be pointless to let him beat you.
Matt Olson is a different story. He’s posted a .981 OPS this year for a 175 OPS+, and would be the most productive bat on this year’s Yankees team. He’s 25th among active players in OPS against the Yankees, and is basically the Vlad Jr. of this series. You know he’s likely to beat you, so avoid allowing him to do so.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Jameson Taillon vs James Kaprielian
Jameson Taillon provides the elusive combination of good peripherals, bad luck, and bad performances. He does not walk a ton of guys, gets a lot of chases, throws relatively hard with relatively high spin, and is able to strike plenty of guys out. With that said, he allows a ton of hard contact and a ton of barrels, which have led to his bad WHIP (low walk rate, those are all hits) and bad ERA. I hope that his batted ball luck improves. He’s allowed a .263 BA this year, fully 30 points above his xBA allowed. He has the 25th-highest BABIP allowed among pitchers with at least 50 IP, which certainly is not what you want, but definitely explains some of the 1.8-run difference between his ERA and xERA. We have reason to believe that some progress is possible for Jamo, because regression to the mean would be progress, but the fact that a lot of batted balls off of him are completely scorched is hard to solve.
James Kaprielian, who the Yankees picked in the first round of the 2015 draft and then traded with Dustin Fowler and Jorge Mateo for Sonny Gray, will make his first start against the Yankees on Friday. The 27-year old UCLA product missed part of 2017 and all of 2018 thanks to Tommy John surgery, when he appeared to be on the fast track to a spot on a Major League staff. He made his debut last August, and pitched 3.2 innings over two starts, before becoming part of the Oakland rotation this year.
It’s always nice to see a highly-touted guy who has a rocky journey arrive in style, and that’s what Kaprielian has done this year. He earned a win in his first career start with 5 innings of 1-run ball against the Red Sox back in May, and has been stellar aside from a 3.2 IP, 4 ER performance against Seattle a couple of starts ago. The rookie has a 2.51 ERA, and while his expected stats suggest he’s due for some regression (ERA is about a run better than his xERA), his expected stats are quite good. Like Taillon, he is no stranger to allowing hard contact, and unlike Taillon, he has a tendency to issue some walks. Hopefully the Yankees can exploit those trends against their former prospect.
Game 2: Domingo Germán vs Chris Bassitt
There’s not a ton to say about Domingo Germán, who is going on Sábado this week. Before his clunker in Philly last weekend, he had a streak of 9 starts during which he pitched to a 2.35 ERA. His ERA (3.88) seems to be settling in around his xERA (3.92), and he’s been one of the more trustworthy and productive pieces of the Yankees’ rotation this year. lefties hit him a bit better than righties, so I guess it’s good news that of the mashers on the A’s, only Olson is left handed.
Chris Bassitt is what we’d call “freakin’ good, dude.” With the exception of velocity and spin rate, his peripherals are all basically elite, and his expected stats are phenomenal. The 32-year old righty quietly has a 3.56 ERA in 80 career starts with the White Sox and A’s, and is simply a great guy to get to throw out there every fifth day. He is posting career-best figures in walk rate, strikeout rate, hits per 9 innings, WHIP, and FIP. Frankly, he’s gonna be tough to beat, so the Yankees will need a good game out of Germán.
Game 3: Jordan Montgomery vs Sean Manaea
Jordan Montgomery has been pretty average this year (98 ERA+) but his expected stats are good (3.81 xERA), and he is posting the best FIP of his career (3.57) and the best WHIP of his career (1.189). I am a firm believer that Jordan Montgomery is a good Major League pitcher and I would appreciate if you did not try to mess with that narrative. It’s been an up and down year for Monty, but he has a 3.41 ERA since May 21, so I hope he’s finding his groove. He’s going to need to be a valuable piece of this rotation if this team is going to succeed.
Like Bassitt, Sean Manaea has been terrific this year. He’s pitching to an ERA under 3.00 (though his xERA is about a run higher), and is leading the league in complete games and shutouts (2 of each, 1 was 7 innings). The one-time thrower of a no-hitter against the Red Sox is elite at one thing: control. He hardly walks anyone, and gets guys out on pitches in the zone (high zone rate, low chase rate).
The trend to watch with Manaea is that his ground ball rate is down year-over-year, and his line drive and fly ball rates are both up. Is Sean Manaea a merchant of the deadened ball? People are asking.
Only joking. It’s not like Sean Manaea deadened the ball himself, but I’ll be interested to see how that batted ball profile holds up as the weather gets warmer and/or the ball gets a bit more life.
Parting Shots
The Yankees had a good series against Toronto. #HotGarySummer is in full effect. The A’s are a really good team, and the Yankees have a chance to make a statement by taking a second consecutive series here. As I said the other day, the time for mediocre play is over. It’s time to win games.
We've tolerated 65 mediocre games from this team. That needs to end TONIGHT. No more waiting for Luke Voit or Luis Severino or anyone else. This team needs to continue to hit and to start to win consistently. The time for mediocrity has passed.
— Yankees Files (@YankeesFiles) June 15, 2021
Speaking of winning games, remember when the Yankees hit 3 grand slams in one game against the A’s? That was sick.
Let’s go Yankees.
