Leading Off: New York Mets
Hot Gary Summer struck with force the last time the Yankees and Mets played (Adam Hunger / AP)
Sound The Alarm?
The Yankees started the season 5-10. Since then, they are 36-29, which is… fine… I guess. Their 41-39 record through 80 games is unsettling, and projects them to be an aggressively average team. Despite the recent offensive resurgence (things are indeed so bad that 2 games constitute a resurgence), faltering starting pitchers and a woefully ineffective Aroldis Chapman have kept the Yankees from making any progress, and in fact pushed them farther from a playoff spot.
The Yankees come into the series as losers of 5 of their last 6 games, some in particularly heartbreaking fashion (a terrible Gerrit Cole start, a tragic outing by Chapman, knocking out two Angels starters before the third inning and losing both games), and are showing little urgency.
Luke Voit has been a below average offensive player since returning during the Kansas City series. Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have been below average all year. Clint Frazier has become plain bad! This is a problem.
Hal Steinbrenner blamed himself, Aaron Boone, and the coaching staff during his press conference on Thursday … just before he blamed the players. Here’s how he phrased it, from Marly Rivera’s article at ESPN.com
“‘We’re responsible. We’re in charge. We all can share the blame,’ Steinbrenner said in reference to his analytics team, front office and coaching staff. ‘But make no mistake about it. In my opinion, the majority of the responsibility lies with the players. They’re the ones on the field.’”
So like, sure. Hal’s right. The front office put together a team that is supposed to be good. That team is underperforming, and of course it would be silly to blame the deadened ball, the sticky stuff ban enforcement, or anything else for the team’s consistent struggles. And yes, when Aroldis Chapman goes out and gives up a grand slam, it’s his fault. When Clint Frazier makes weak contact, it’s his fault. But doesn’t it feel like it’s malpractice for ownership not to have authorized Cashman to wheel and deal a bit? Shouldn’t this team have Jose Berrios or Kenta Maeda or Mike Minor? Shouldn’t this team have Starling Marte or Ketel Marte or David Peralta rather than Tim Locastro? Shouldn’t this team have gone into the season with an answer at first base other than Jay Bruce or Mike Ford?
I get that injuries and unexpected regression have affected the roster in big ways, but I am past the point at which I think the front office has any legitimate excuse for not blowing through the luxury tax threshold and making moves to win games in bunches. I agree that the Rays and Red Sox will not keep up their winning ways at their prior rates (the Red Sox have unsustainable starting pitching and the Rays lost Tyler Glasnow) but the Yankees are 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and 9 games out of the division lead. It’s now or never, and it’s increasingly looking like never. This team needs to play 82 great games just to make the playoffs. The time for mediocrity to be tolerated passed a long time ago.
Don’t Sound the Alarm?
Certain positive trends persist, particularly DJ LeMahieu’s offensive production. DJ is hitting .322/.379/.517 for an OPS of .896 and a 146 wRC+ in his last 95 PA, and is now above average by wRC+ on the season. He continues to underperform his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA by significant amounts, indicating that this hot streak could continue as he progresses toward his expected level of performance.
Speaking of people who have continued their hot hitting, #HotGarySummer remains in full effect. Since the second game of the doubleheader with Toronto on May 27, Gary is hitting .312/.407/.677 with a 186 wRC+. He’s up to a 128 wRC+ on the Yankees and I shudder to thing about where they’d be without this hot stretch of 107 PA from him. On the topic of Gary, and #HotGarySummer, here’s what he did in his last PA against the Mets as a PH for Erik Kratz in the eighth inning of the second game of a doubleheader sweep on August 30 of last year.
I was in my car listening to this game and I am shocked I didn’t drive off the road out of celebratory shock when Gary hit that ball. What a phenomenal thing and game.
Also, that highlight is a perfectly 2020 highlight. A great player is having an unusually bad year. The eighth inning is extra innings. There are no fans in the stands. The Yankees are playing in their home uniforms and home stadium as the away team. The Mets are the home team in the Bronx. the 32nd game of the year is happening on August 30. What an absurd thing.
Giancarlo Stanton has a 160 wRC+ since June 2, and is walking 20% of the time in that span (insane). He’s also striking out at a league average level over that period. It’s great to see him in the lineup and contributing every day.
Even Aaron Judge, who will be an All Star starter in Denver this year, has broken out of his mini slump to the tune of a 204 wRC+ in his last 37 PA. With these guys all producing, the lineup becomes very potent.
Meet The Mets
The first place to look when evaluating the New York Mets is at the NL East standings where, at 41-36, the Mets lead Washington by 2 games for first place in the division.
The second place to look when evaluating the New York Mets is at the IL. Here are some guys you know who are on the IL and would otherwise be playing for the Mets.
JD Davis
Noah Syndergaard
Jonathan Villar
Brandon Nimmo
Joey Lucchesi
Carlos Carrasco
Old Friend Dellin Betances
Jeurys Familia
Robert Gsellman
Tommy Hunter
Robinson Cano (his reputation is on the IL after being suspended for the year)
So things are not… great… but the Mets have dealt with it pretty nicely. They rank first in the league in ERA for starters, second for WHIP, and first in H/9. Their relievers are not great (only in the top 10 in the league in K/9 and HR/9) and their offense is abysmal, ranking 20th or worse in BA, OBP, OPS, runs, homers, and stolen bases (thank you Roster Resource for making stolen bases one of the 6 stats you rank teams in as standard). The disappointing thing about writing this is that the Mets rank very badly in most things but are a first place team whereas the Yankees rank pretty well in a lot of things but are a fourth place team. Oh unequal divisions, how I love thee.
There are only 9 Mets who have 100 or more PA this year. For comparison’s sake, there are 12 Yankees with 100+ PA. Of those 9 Mets, only 2 have been above average by wRC+ this year (Alonso - 125, Villar - 109), but no player has been below average by more than 15% (Jeff McNeil - 85). Of those 12 Yankees, 5 have been above average (Judge, G, Gary, Gio, DJ), but 5 has been as bad as McNeil or Worse (Miggy, Clint, Gardner, Gleyber, Hicks). The Mets have a lot of guys hovering around league average, and the Yankees have a lot of guys who are doing great or doing terribly. Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez are all producing at a higher level than Alonso offensively, but the Yankees are still bad. Ouch.
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Jordan Montgomery v Taijuan Walker
Jordan Montgomery is pitching to a 3.77 ERA in his last 5 starts, and the Yankees are 4-1 in those games. Although his performance over the course of the season has not been incredibly consistent (his 3-2 record is evidence of this), the Yankees are 11-4 in his starts, and he’s been reliable when they need a win. It sounds weird to say, but with the Yankees 8-8 in Gerrit Cole’s starts, Jordan Montgomery may be exactly the guy the Yankees want to see on the mound on Friday night.
Taijuan Walker, who’s still only 28 despite having been a major leaguer since before Whipple had his drivers license, is having a phenomenal season and is looking like one of the best free agent acquisitions of this past offseason. The Mets signed him to a cheap 3-year deal, and it hurts that the Yankees don’t have him, honestly. As far as full seasons go, Walker is posting his Best ERA, his best FIP, his best WHIP, and his best K/9.
Baseball Savant doesn’t love Walker. He’s wildly outperforming his xwOBA allowed (almost 50 points), his xERA (more than 1.2 runs), his xFIP (.8 runs) and his xBA allowed (almost 50 points). We can hope that some regression is coming for Walker in this game, but he’s been very effective and that is concerning.
Game 2: Gerrit Cole v Marcus Stroman
I will not be entertaining any Gerrit Cole alarmism. His expected ERA and FIP are both under 3.00 and until his peripherals become really bad, freaking out is stupid.
Like Walker, Marcus Stroman has been a good guy for the Mets to have this year. His 2.44 ERA and 3.60 FIP are both very impressive, and he’s striking out more batters than he ever has before. His walk rate is down compared to recent seasons, and as a result his K-BB% is as good as it has been since 2014.
The elephant in the room here is that Stroman is probably getting lucky. He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, and while he is great at avoiding walks, he relies on balls in play to generate outs. The balls in play he is allowing have been hit quite hard (he’s in the bottom quartile of average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and xBA). That goes a long way toward explaining why his xERA is more than 2 runs higher than his realized ERA. To me, Stroman is a guy who is easy to root for, and it’s nice to see him succeed. I do project some regression to the mean for him though. The Yankees have a lot of guys who hit the ball stupidly hard, so hopefully they can take advantage of Stroman’s penchant for allowing hard contact.
Game 3: Mike King v Tylor Megill
Not entertaining the fact that the Yankees still employ Mike King.
Tylor “Don’t Call Me Taylor or Tyler” Megill is a top-25 prospect for the mets who made his AAA debut this year… and his MLB debut a couple of weeks ago against the Braves. In fact, the Yankees will be the first non-Braves team that Megill has faced. He’s pitched to a 4.82 ERA in 9.1 IP, but xERA and xFIP currently like him a lot more than his realized stats. Like a lot of young pitchers, he’s a high strikeout, high walk, high homer guy.
In the minors from 2018 to mid-June, Megill was a 12 K/9 guy with a penchant for issuing walks. His K/BB does not blow you away as a result (just short of 4 in his MiLB career), but he kept his WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 down well in the minors. Interested to see how the 25-year old fares at Yankee Stadium on the Fourth of July. That’ll be something.
Remember This?
I feel bad that this is how I remember Yoenis Cespedes’s tenure with the Mets but… oh well.
Check back in with us on Sunday for the recap. Enjoy the holiday weekend, George Steinbrenner’s birthday, and the 38th anniversary of Dave Righetti’s no-hitter. Go Yankees.
